放送今日份的雅思閱讀內容，標題為：The future of America,Bland comfort.Why Americans need to beware of becoming complacent ( 美國的未來——無味的舒適。為什麼美國人需要提防自滿 ) 每天一點雅思閱讀訓練，提高自己的閱讀速度，雅思考試臨場不慌。
The future of America,Bland comfort.Why Americans need to beware of becoming complacent
AMERICA is the land of opportunity, they say. Inspired by the ambition of its Founding Fathers, its people revel in their dynamism. Diversity is their strength, as captured in the national motto — E pluribus unum ( "Out of many, one" ) . Americans embrace change and reinvention, and this, they like to think, sets their country apart from Europe or Asia.
有人說，美國是一片充滿機遇的土地。美國人在開國元勛們的雄心鼓舞下盡情揮灑自己的活力。多樣性是美國的優勢所在，也寫在瞭美國的國傢格言—— E pluribus unum ( " 合眾為一 " ) 中 。美國人擁抱變化與再創造，而他們也樂意認為這一點將美國與歐洲或亞洲國傢區別開來。
Tyler Cowen, an economist, believes that this ideal is self-indulgent nonsense. America is losing its vim, he says, and Americans are settling into stagnation. In his new book, "The Complacent Class", Mr Cowen shows not only that Americans move less now, crossing state lines at around half the average rate that they did between 1948 and 1971, and stay longer in their jobs, but American entrepreneurialism is floundering too. Markets are becoming more concentrated. Fewer new companies are being started, and many struggle to grow. Even in the vaunted technology sector the creation and expansion of new firms peaked in 2000. Sluggish growth in productivity and living standards is making America more like Europe and Japan.
經濟學傢泰勒 · 考恩 ( Tyler Cowen ) 認為這種完美之說是洋洋自得的無稽之談。他說，美國正在失去激情，美國人也漸漸安於停滯。在他的新書《自滿階級》 ( The Complacent Class ) 中，考恩表明，美國人搬傢比以往更少，穿越州界的頻次是 1948 年至 1971 年間平均頻次的一半。他們持續做一份工作的時間更長瞭。美國的創業精神也陷入瞭困境。市場正變得越來越集中。新創立的公司更少瞭，許多創業公司為瞭增長而苦苦掙紮。即使在志得意滿的技術行業，新公司創建和擴張的數量已在 2000 年達到瞭頂峰。生產力和生活水平增長緩慢讓美國變得更像歐洲和日本瞭。
On the surface, Americans enjoy more choice than ever before. From over 1,400 types of music on Spotify, a music-streaming service, to a swipeable menu of dating options, and rare books available at the click of a button, consumers have never had it so good. But there is a dark side to being able to select the perfect product, neighbourhood or partner. Freedom to choose means that it is ever easier for people to marry, live near or school their children with other people of the same kind. In the South, the proportion of black students in majority-white schools was 44% in 1988; in 2011 that figure was 23% — lower than in 1968. Segregation by income has risen dramatically in the past few decades. The American elite might celebrate diversity in dinner-table conversation, but in practice Americans are cocooning themselves in enclaves of like-minded folk.
從表面上看，美國人享有的選擇比以往任何時候都要多。從音樂流媒體服務 Spotify 上提供的超過 1400 種音樂類型，動動手指就可挑挑揀揀的約會人選，到點一個按鈕就可閱覽的絕版書籍，消費者從來沒有像現在這樣優越過。但是，能夠選擇完美的產品、居住地或伴侶也有其陰暗的一面。自由選擇意味著人們從來沒有像這麼容易地與同類人結婚、聚居或把孩子送入同一所學校。在南部，白人占多數的學校在 1988 年時黑人學生的比例為 44%，而 2011 年這一數字為 23% ——比 1968 年時還低。因收入造成的隔離在過去幾十年裡急劇上升。美國的精英們在餐桌上交談時可能會歌頌多元化，但實際上美國人正在把自己封閉在志同道合者的小圈子裡。
Segregation shuts off growth and stymies innovation. Poorer states used to be able to attract talented people by offering them a combination of promising job opportunities and cheaper housing. But now no one expects Louisiana to catch up with Silicon Valley. For the past few decades poorer states have been caught in a vicious circle, says Mr Cowen, where the expectation that they will not catch up makes it harder for them to do so.
隔離會抑制增長、阻礙創新。貧窮的州以前還能夠通過提供有前途的就業機會加之更便宜的住房來吸引優秀人才。但現在，沒有人覺得路易斯安那能趕上矽谷。考恩說，過去幾十年間，較貧窮的州陷入瞭一個惡性循環 : 人們不期望它們能夠趕上，這使得它們更難翻身。
When it comes to economic segregation, market forces are not helping, or at least not when they are combined with restrictions preventing the construction of more low-cost housing. A housing market that allocates the nicest housing to the highest bidder will inevitably push poor folk out of sight — and thus out of mind. Richer, well-educated people want to live near each other, and high house prices conveniently discourage poorer people from spoiling the view.
就經濟隔離而言，市場力量幫不上什麼忙，至少在許多仍限制建造更多廉價房屋的市場裡是這樣。將最好的住房分配給出價最高者的住房市場將不可避免地把窮人推到視線之外——於是眼不見心不煩瞭。受過良好教育的富裕人群希望相互比鄰而居，高房價很方便地防止瞭窮人在旁邊煞風景。
There will be consequences, says Mr Cowen. Hyman Minsky, an economist who grew up during the Great Depression, had a theory that financial stability would breed overconfidence, sowing the seeds of future instability. Largely ignored in his lifetime as he pushed against the prevailing wisdom that efficient markets would protect capitalist society against disaster, his idea became widely celebrated only after the financial crisis appeared to confirm it in 2007-08. Complacent financiers, regulators and central bankers allowed risk to build and put the whole system in danger.
考恩說這會帶來嚴重後果。在大蕭條時期長大的經濟學傢海曼 · 明斯基 ( Hyman Minsky ) 有一套理論，認為金融穩定會滋生過度自信，撒下未來不穩定的種子。他不認同高效市場能保護資本主義社會免受災難這一流行觀念，因而他生前很大程度上被忽視。直到 2007 年至 2008 年的金融危機證實瞭他的理論，他的思想才得到瞭廣泛的承認。自滿的金融傢、監管機構和央行行長聽任風險累積起來，將整個體系置於危險之中。
Extending the idea to all society, as Mr Cowen does, is tricky because of the difficulty in telling the difference between complacency, contentment and submission. He is unclear who the complacent class really are, and who exactly is responsible for the mess. Are Americans betraying their history of reaching for the American dream, or are they suffering because of a rotten system? ( Were the bankers greedy, or responding to incentives? )
像考恩那樣用這套理論解釋全社會就有問題瞭，因為要區分自滿、知足與屈服並非易事。他並不清楚自滿階級具體是誰，以及到底誰該為這個爛攤子負責。是美國人背叛瞭追逐美國夢的傳統，還是因一個腐爛的體制而受苦 ? ( 銀行傢們是貪婪，還是對激勵做出瞭反應 ? )
Still, there is some truth to Mr Cowen ’ s diagnosis that America ’ s strength is undermined by its divisions and by a willingness to protect the powerful. Pockets of rich Americans and the lack of opportunity implied for those who are shut out of those pockets represent a festering problem, says Mr Cowen. In a crisis, the system ’ s creakiness will leave it ill-equipped to cope. In the final chapter he reveals his fear that the biggest story of the last 15 years is the growing likelihood that "a cyclical model of history will be a better predictor than a model of ongoing progress."
盡管如此，考恩的診斷，即美國的優勢被分裂和保護強者的意願所削弱仍有一定的道理。考恩說，美國富人的錢袋，以及被錢袋拒之門外者缺乏機會是一個不斷惡化的問題。在危機時，體制的腐朽會讓它沒有能力應對。他在最後一章中揭示瞭他的擔憂，即過去 15 年中最重要的事越來越可能是 " 歷史的周期性模型的預測能力比持續進步能力更強
The main question Mr Cowen raises is whether a dose of disorderliness will joltAmerica back tostrength. He offers an optimistic scenario, in which driverless cars allow Americans to overcome the pain of having to commute over longer distances, or where global crises convince them that they should live for the moment. Artificial intelligence, clean cheap energy and alternatives to tranquillisingopioidscould all return America ’ s lost dynamism.
考恩提出的主要問題是，一定量的無序能不能震動美國，使之重新恢復優勢。他提供瞭一個樂觀的情景：無人駕駛汽車讓美國人擺脫瞭通勤距離加長的痛苦，或全球危機讓他們相信自己應該活在當下。人工智能、清潔廉價的能源和阿片類鎮靜藥物的替代品都可能讓美國找回失去的活力。考恩提出的主要問題是，一定量的無序能不能震動美國，使之重新恢復優勢。他提供瞭一個樂觀的情景：無人駕駛汽車讓美國人擺脫瞭通勤距離加長的痛苦，或全球危機讓他們相信自己應該活在當下。人工智能、清潔廉價的能源和阿片類鎮靜藥物的替代品都可能讓美國找回失去的活力。
But the pessimism of his analysis sits uncomfortably with these rosy scenarios. Other, likelier forms of chaos include populist politicians bent on sowing division, or even international violence. The path from those to a restored, vibrant America seems longer and rockier. In cycles, things often go down before they go up
但在這些美好的情景中，他的分析仍然不安地表現出瞭悲觀的情緒。更有可能出現其他形式的混亂，如民粹主義政客播撒分裂的種子甚至是跨國暴力。要從這樣的狀況回到一個恢復元氣、充滿活力的美國，路途似乎更加遙遠和坎坷。在周期中，上升之前往往下跌
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