想看上一篇雙語閱讀 ?點這裡>>現代英國青年更有責任感
想看下一篇雙語閱讀 ?點這裡>>英國會員制模式重獲新生
When the cycle turns
周期輪回
The next financial crisis may be triggered by central banks.
下一場金融危機或被央行觸發。
這篇閱讀材料還有 MP3 音頻哦 !下載>>傳送門
As with London buses, don't worry if you miss a financial crisis; another will be along shortly.
如同倫敦公交車一樣，如果錯過瞭一場金融危機，別擔心 ; 下一場很快就會來。
The latest study on long-term asset returns from Deutsche Bank shows that crises in developed markets have become much more common in recent decades.
來自德意志銀行的有關長期資產回報的最新研究表明，在發達國傢，危機在近幾十年中已經變得越來越常見瞭。
That does not bode well.
這不是好兆頭。
Deutsche defines a crisis as a period when a country suffers one of the following: a 15% annual decline in equities; a 10% fall in its currency or its government bonds; a default on its national debt; or a period of double-digit inflation.
德意志銀行把危機定義為國傢遭受下列情況之一時的一段時間：股票 15% 的年化下跌 ; 貨幣或政府債券 10% 的下跌 ; 國傢債務違約 ; 或者是一段兩位數的通脹時期。
During the 19th century, only occasionally did more than half of countries for which there are data suffer such a shock in a single year.
19 世紀期間，隻有偶爾超過半數的有數據的國傢在單獨一年中遭受一次這樣的沖擊。
But since the 1980s, in numerous years more than half of them have been in a financial crisis of some kind.
但是，自上世紀 80 年代以來，在很多年中，這些國傢中的一半以上都處於某種金融危機之中。
The main reason for this, argues Deutsche, is the monetary system.
德意志銀行指出，這方面的罪魁禍首是貨幣體系。
Under the gold standard and its successor, the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, the amount of credit creation was limited.
在金本位制及其後續者——佈雷頓森林體系的固定匯率之下，信用創造的總量是有限的。
A country that expanded its money supply too quickly would suffer a trade deficit and pressure on its currency's exchange rate; the government would react by slamming on the monetary brakes.
太快地擴張瞭貨幣供給的國傢會遭受貿易赤字之苦以及對其貨幣匯率的壓力 ; 政府會應之以貨幣政策的急剎車。
The result was that it was harder for financial bubbles to inflate.
結果是，金融泡沫越來越難膨脹。
But since the early 1970s more countries have moved to a floating exchange-rate system.
但是，自上世紀 70 年代初以來，更多的國傢轉向瞭浮動匯率體系。
This gives governments the flexibility to deal with an economic crisis, and means they do not have to subordinate other policy goals to maintaining a currency peg.
這賦予政府應對經濟危機的靈活性，而且還意味著他們不必為瞭維持貨幣掛鉤而屈從於其他政策目標。
It has also created a trend towards greater trade imbalances, which no longer constrain policymakers — the currency is often allowed to take the strain.
它還造成瞭一種走向更大的貿易不平衡的趨勢，這種趨勢不再去束縛決策者——貨幣經常受命來承擔這種扭曲。
Similarly, government debt has risen steadily as a proportion of GDP since the mid-1970s.
同樣地，作為 GDP 的一部分的政府債務自上世紀 70 年代中期以來一直在穩步上升。
There has been little pressure from the markets to balance the budget; Japan has had a deficit every year since 1966, and France since 1993.
很少有來自市場以平衡預算的壓力 ; 自 1966 年以來，日本年年赤字。自 1993 年以來，法國也是如此。
Italy has managed just one year of surplus since 1950.
自 1950 年以來，意大利用盡渾身解數，才隻有一年盈餘。
In the developed world, consumers and companies have also taken on more debt.
在發達國傢，消費者和公司也背上瞭更多債務。
The result has been a cycle of credit expansion and collapse.
結果是一輪債務擴張和破滅的周期。
Debt is used to finance the purchase of assets, and the greater availability of credit pushes asset prices higher.
債務被用來資助資產購買，而且債務的可得性的增大也把資產價格推得更高。
From time to time, however, lenders lose faith in borrowers' ability to repay and stop lending; a fire sale of assets can follow, further weakening the belief in the creditworthiness of borrowers.
然而，不時地，債權人失去對債務人還本付息並停止舉債的信心 ; 一輪資產賤賣可能隨之而來，進一步摧毀瞭對舉債人信譽的信心。
Central banks then step in to cut interest rates or ( since 2008 ) to buy assets directly.
之後，各國央行紛紛介入，或是降低利率，或是 ( 自 2008 年以來 ) 直接購入資產。
This brings the crisis to a temporary halt but each cycle seems to result in higher debt levels and asset prices.
這讓危機得以暫時喘息，但是，每一輪周期似乎都以越來越高的債務水平和資產價格而收場。
The combined valuation of bonds and equities in the developed world is higher than ever before.
發達國傢的債券和股票的綜合估值比之前什麼時候都高。
All this suggests that the financial system could be due another crisis.
這一切表明，金融體系可能是在劫難逃的下一場危機。
Deutsche makes several suggestions as to what might cause one, from a debt-related crash in China, through the rise of populist political parties to the problem of illiquidity in bond markets.
德意志銀行對什麼可能造成下一場危機提出多個建議，從中國方面的一場與債務有關的崩潰，經由各種民粹主義政黨的興起，到債券市場流動性不足的問題。
The most likely trigger for a sell-off is the withdrawal of support by central banks; after all, the monetary authorities are generally credited with having saved the global economy and markets in 2009.
最有可能的拋售導火索是來自各國央行的對於支持的撤回 ; 畢竟，從總體上來說，各國貨幣當局被認為在 2009 年拯救是全球經濟和市場。
In America the Federal Reserve is pushing up interest rates and reducing the size of its balance-sheet; the European Central Bank seems likely to cut the scale of its asset purchases next year; the Bank of England might even increase rates for the first time in more than a decade.
在美國，美聯儲正在推高利率並降低資產負債表的規模 ; 歐洲央行似乎有可能消減下一年度的資產購買規模 ; 英格蘭銀行甚至有可能十多年來第一次升息。
Central banks are well aware of the dangers, of course; that is why interest rates are still so low, even though developed economies have been growing for several years.
當然，各國央行對危險有著清醒的認識 ; 這就是即便發達經濟體這幾年一直在增長，利率為什麼還是這麼低的原因。
But the process of withdrawing stimulus is tricky.
但是，撤回刺激的過程存在難度。
A big sell-off in the government-bond markets in 1994 started when the Fed tightened policy after a period when rates were kept low during the savings-and-loan crisis.
1994 年的一場政府債券市場的大規模拋售就是在美聯儲收緊瞭政策之際開始的，當時正值 y 一輪利率在那場儲蓄和借貸危機中被維持在低位的周期之後。
The high level of asset prices means that any kind of return to "normal" valuation levels would constitute a crisis, on Deutsche's definition.
根據德意志銀行的定義，高高在上的資產價格水平意味著向著 " 正常 " 估值水平的任何形式的回歸都會造成一場危機。
That might mean that central banks are forced to change course and loosen policy again.
這可能表明，各國央行被迫轉向並再次放寬政策。
But the process would take a little time; central banks will not want to appear too enslaved to the markets.
但是，這一過程會占用很少的時間 ; 央行不想似乎過於受制於市場。
Many investors will want to ride out the volatility; that has been a winning strategy in the past.
許多投資者想要安然度過這波驚濤駭浪 ; 過去曾有過一種制勝策略。
The problems will emerge among those investors who have borrowed money to buy assets — in America the volume of such debt exceeds the level reached in 2008.
問題將出現在那些用借來的錢購買資產的人之中——在美國，這類債務的總量遠遠超過 2008 年曾經達到的水平。
The big question is which is the most vulnerable asset class.
大問題是，哪一類是最脆弱的資產類別。
American mortgage-backed securities were the killers in 2008; it is bound to be something different this time round.
美國的抵押證券曾在 2008 年充當過殺手 ; 這一次，肯定會是某種不一樣的東西。
更多 GRE 雙語閱讀文章匯總>>點擊這裡
關註微信公眾號【留學戰書】：
人手一本經典 GRE 考試用書 在線免費閱讀
