【每日晨讀】經濟學人 GRE 雙語閱讀 德國再生能源計劃有風險

02-04

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Germany's energy transformation —— Energiewende

德國的能源轉型:能源大變身

German plans to cut carbon emissions withrenewable energy are ambitious, but they are alsorisky

德國計劃通過可再生能源削減碳排放。雄偉的能源計劃風險猶存。

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"The quieter the evening, the more you hear it," says Wilfried Bockholt, mayor of Niebull inNorth Friesland. He mimics the sound of a 55-metre-long rotor whirling round a windmill ’ smast. He is a driving force behind the "citizens ’ wind park", but he has mixed feelings. A regionfamed for broad horizons is now jagged with white spires. "They alter the landscapecompletely," he laments.

北弗裡蘭縣的尼必爾市市長 Wilfried Bockholt 說," 夜愈是寂靜,風車的聲音就愈震耳。" 他隨即模仿瞭長達 5 米的風車翼片在桅桿上急速旋轉的聲音。Bockholt 是 " 市民風電場 " 背後的推動力量,然而於此項目,他卻是喜憂參半。曾以視野廣闊盛名的尼必爾,現今卻擠滿瞭高低起伏的白風車。他抱怨道," 風車完全改變瞭這兒的地形。"

North Friesland ’ s wind boom is part of Germany ’ s Energiewende ( energy transformation ) , aplan to shift from nuclear and fossil fuels to renewables. It was dreamed up in the 1980s,became policy in 2000 and sped up after the Fukushima disaster in March 2011. That ledAngela Merkel, the chancellor, to scrap her extension of nuclear power ( rather than phasing itout by 2022, as previous governments had planned ) . She ordered the immediate closure ofseven reactors. Germany reaffirmed its clean-energy goals —greenhouse-gas emissions are tobe cut from 1990 levels by 40% by 2020 and by 80% by 2050 — but it must now meet thosetargets without nuclear power.

北弗裡蘭縣蓬勃發展的風力是德國能源轉型計劃的一部分,該計劃旨在將德國利用的能源從核能、礦物燃料轉變為可再生能源。能源轉型計劃構想於上世紀 80 年代,於 2000 年出臺相關政策,並在 2011 年 3 月福島災難發生後加快瞭政策進程。上屆政府曾計劃在 2022 年前徹底廢除核能,而福島事故促使現任總理安吉拉 · 默克爾改變對擴大發展核能的態度。她下令立即關閉 7 座核反應堆。德國重申瞭本國的清潔能源計劃,即在 2020 年和 2050 年,溫室氣體排放量分別比 1990 年減少 40% 和 80%,但如今德國需在不利用核能的情況下完成目標。

The rest of the world watches with wonder, annoyance — and anticipatory Schadenfreude.Rather than stabilising Europe ’ s electricity, Germany plagues neighbours by dumpingunpredictable surges of wind and solar power. To many theEnergiewende is a lunatic gamblewith the country ’ s manufacturing prowess. But if it pays off Germany will have created yetanother world-beating industry, say the gamblers. Alone among rich countries Germany has"the means and will to achieve a staggering transformation of the energy infrastructure",says Mark Lewis, an analyst at Deutsche Bank.

其他國傢看德國的眼神裡帶有一絲驚奇,些許厭惡,幸災樂禍。德國理應維護歐洲供電的穩定,現今卻用廉價出售琢磨不定的風能、太陽能給鄰國添堵。對多數人而言,能源轉型計劃就是用德國強大的制造業來進行一場瘋狂的賭博。然而一旦有所回報,德國將創建另一個世界級行業," 賭徒們 " 如是說。在所有發達國傢中,德國是唯一 " 有方法、有決心完成能源基礎設施交錯轉型 " 的國傢,德意志銀行的分析師 Mark Lewis 說道。

Much could go wrong. Wholesale electricity prices will be 70% higher by 2025, predicts theKarlsruhe Institute of Technology. Germany must build or upgrade 8,300km ( 5,157 miles ) oftransmission lines ( not including connections to offshore wind farms ) . Intermittent wind andsun power creates a need for backup generators, while playing havoc with business modelsthat justify investing in them. Hans-Peter Keitel, president of the Federation of GermanIndustry, likens theEnergiewende to "open-heart surgery".

仍有很多地方會出現差池。據卡爾斯魯厄理工學院預測,截至 2025 年,發電成本將整體上漲 70%。德國必須修建或升級 8300 千米 ( 5157 英裡 ) 的電力傳輸線,其中不包括將海上風電站連到電網的線路。風能、太陽能的間接性在攪亂專為其投資建立的商業模型的同時,也產生瞭對備用發電機組的需求。德國工業聯合會主席 Hans-Peter Keitel 就將能源轉型計劃比作 " 開胸手術 "

In May Mrs Merkel sacked the environment minister, Norbert Rottgen, after he led her ChristianDemocrats to a disastrous defeat in a regional election. His successor is Peter Altmaier, acanny parliamentarian who will share responsibility with the economy minister, Philipp Rosler. Infact Mrs Merkel has taken charge herself. She convenes energy summits with leaders of the 16states, and promises to incorporate grid operators ’ plans into federal law by the end of theyear. But even she admits the Energiewende is a "Herculean task".

今年五月,Norbert Rottgen 代表基民盟競選州長失敗,默克爾隨後解除瞭其環境部長職位,並任命精明謹慎的國會議員 Peter Altmaier 接任。Altmaier 將同財政部長 Philipp Rosler 共擔重任。事實上,默克爾早已親自接管此事。她召集 16 個州的州長舉行州長能源峰會,並向各州長保證,將會在今年年底前,把電網運營商的計劃納入聯邦法律。但就連她自己也不得不承認能源轉型計劃是一項異常艱巨的任務。

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