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Asset Prices —— The bull market in everything
資產價格：全面牛市
Prices are high across a range of assets. Is it time to worry?
縱觀各類資產，價格已經高高在上。到瞭擔心的時候瞭嗎 ?
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In his classic, "The Intelligent Investor", first published in 1949, Benjamin Graham, a Wall Street sage, distilled what he called his secret of sound investment into three words: "margin of safety".
在他初版於 1949 年的經典著作《聰明的投資者》中，華爾街聖人本傑明 · 格林漢姆把他稱之為是他的堅實投資之秘密的東西濃縮成瞭四個字：安全邊際 ( margin of safety 在英語中是三個字，轉換為漢語是四個字 ) 。
The price paid for a stock or a bond should allow for human error, bad luck or, indeed, many things going wrong at once.
付給股票或者債券的價格應當考慮到人為的錯誤、糟糕的運氣，說白瞭就是禍不單行。
In a troubled world of trade tiffs and nuclear braggadocio, such advice should be especially worth heeding.
在一個貿易爭端與核武口水戰的亂世中，這類建議應當尤其值得聽從。
Yet rarely have so many asset classes — from stocks to bonds to property to bitcoins — exhibited such a sense of invulnerability.
然而，還從沒有這麼多的資產類別——從股票，到債券，到房地產，再到比特幣——展示出一種如此不為所動的感覺。
Dear assets are hardly the product of euphoria.
昂貴的資產幾乎不是亢奮的產物。
No one would mistake the bloodless run-up in global stockmarkets, credit and property over the past eight years for a reprise of the "roaring 20s", or even an echo of the dotcom mania of the late 1990s.
無人會把全球股市、信貸和房地產在過去 8 年中的這種不流血的上漲誤認為是 " 咆哮的 20 年代 " 的再現，甚或是上世紀 90 年代末互聯網狂熱的回響。
Yet only at the peak of those two bubbles has America's S&P 500 been higher as a multiple of earnings measured over a ten-year cycle.
然而，隻有在那兩次泡沫的高點上，作為一個以 10 年期來衡量的盈利倍數，美國的標普 500 才是更高的。
Rarely have creditors demanded so little insurance against default, even on the riskiest "junk" bonds.
幾乎沒有債權人對違約，甚至是在風險最大的 " 垃圾 " 債券上，要求瞭這麼少的保障。
And rarely have property prices around the world towered so high.
同時，世界各地的房地產價格也幾乎沒有這麼高過。
American house prices have bounced back since the financial crisis and are above their long-term average relative to rents.
自金融危機以來，美國的房地產價格一直在反彈，相對於租金，已經高於其長期平均水平。
Those in Britain are well above it.
英國的房地產價格也遠在此之上。
And in Canada and Australia, they are in the stratosphere.
而且，在加拿大和澳大利亞，它們正在同溫層之中。
Add to this the craze for exotica, such as cryptocurrencies, and the world is in the throes of a bull market in everything.
再加上對於各種加密貨幣等新鮮事物的狂熱，世界正處於全面牛市的最終陣痛之中。
Asset-price booms are a source of cheer, but also anxiety.
資產價格牛市既是歡樂之頭，也是焦慮之源。
There are two immediate reasons to worry.
擔心有兩方面的直接原因。
First, markets have been steadily rising against a backdrop of extraordinarily loose monetary policy.
首先，市場一直是在一種額外寬松的貨幣政策背景下穩步上漲的。
Central banks have kept short-term interest rates close to zero since the financial crisis of 2007-08 and have helped depress long-term rates by purchasing $11trn-worth of government bonds through quantitative easing.
自 2007-08 年金融危機以來，各傢央行把短期利率維持在接近於 0 的水平，並且借著通過量化寬松購買價值 1.1 萬億美元的政府債券之機，幫助打壓瞭長期利率。
Only now are they starting to unwind these policies.
隻是在目前，它們才開始放松這些政策。
The Federal Reserve has raised rates twice this year and will soon start to sell its bondholdings.
美聯儲今年已經升息兩次，而且不久還將賣出其債券持有。
Other central banks will eventually follow.
其他央行終將步其後塵。
If today's asset prices have been propped up by central-bank largesse, its end could prompt a big correction.
如果目前的資產價格是被央行的慷慨大方所推高的，它的終結可能促成一次大調整。
Second, signs are appearing that fund managers, desperate for higher yields, are becoming increasingly incautious.
其次，渴望更高收益的基金經理們正在變得愈發不謹慎的跡象正在顯現。
Consider, for instance, investors' recent willingness to buy Eurobonds issued by Iraq, Ukraine and Egypt at yields of around 7%.
例如，考慮一下投資者最近購買由伊拉克、烏克蘭和埃及以 7% 左右的收益率發行的歐元債券的意願吧。
But look carefully at the broader picture, and there is some logic to the ongoing rise in asset prices.
但是，細觀大局，資產價格的這種持續上漲是有邏輯的。
In part it is a response to an improving world economy.
它部分是對正在改善的世界經濟的一種反映。
In the second quarter of this year global GDP grew at its fastest pace since 2010, as a recovery in emerging markets added impetus to longer-standing upswings in Europe and America.
在今年第二季度，全球 GDP 以 2010 年以來的最快步伐增長瞭，這是因為新興市場的復蘇給歐洲和美國的更持久的上漲添加瞭動力。
As our special report this week argues, emerging-market economies have come out of testing times in far more resilient shape.
正如我們本周專題報道所言，各個新興市場經濟體已經以極具彈性的姿態走出瞭考驗時期。
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